專家預測：中國經濟將在近期回升

分析人士5月5日表示，儘管受國內疫情擾動及海外美聯儲加息等多重因素影響，但在更有力的政策支持和更有效的疫情防控之下，預計中國經濟將保持其韌性，並可能在未來幾個月內實現回升。

Containers await shipping at a port in Xiamen, Fujian province. [Photo by WANG XIEYUN/CHINA DAILY]

The Chinese economy is expected to maintain its resilience and may rebound in the coming months with stronger policy support and better epidemic containment, bucking the negative impact of a tightening in US monetary policy, analysts said on Thursday.
分析人士5月5日表示，在更有力的政策支持和更有效的疫情防控之下，預計中國經濟將保持其韌性，並可能在未來幾個月內實現回升，抵禦美國貨幣政策緊縮帶來的消極影響。

They made the remarks after the US Federal Reserve approved a half-percentage point interest rate increase on Wednesday－its second hike this year and its biggest in 22 years－to stem the highest inflation level in the US in four decades.
在美聯儲5月4日宣佈加息半個百分點後分析人士發表了上述言論。這是美聯儲今年第二次加息，也是22年來最大幅度加息，目的是遏制美國40年來最高水平的通貨膨脹。

Apart from raising its target federal funds rate to a range between 0.75 percent and 1 percent, the Fed said it could further impose half-percentage point hikes in each of the next two months and will start balance sheet reduction from June.
除了將美國聯邦基金利率目標上調至0.75%至1%之間，美聯儲還表示，未來兩個月可能會進一步上調半個百分點，並將從6月開始縮減資產負債表。

Huang Yiping, chairman of the academic committee of the China Finance 40 Forum, said the Fed's ongoing tightening could shrink global liquidity and pile on the pressure of capital outflows and currency depreciation on many developing economies.
中國金融四十人論壇學術委員會主席黃益平表示，美聯儲持續的緊縮政策可能會收縮全球資產流動性，並給許多發展中經濟體帶來資本外流和貨幣貶值的壓力。

For China, the country's vast domestic economy, relatively sound fundamentals, large foreign exchange reserves and a steady trade surplus provide a buffer against the spillover effects of US tightening, Huang said.
黃益平稱，對中國來説，中國龐大的國內經濟、相對穩健的基本面、龐大的外匯儲備和穩定的貿易順差為美國緊縮政策的溢出效應提供了緩衝。

"Yet the key (to cushioning the spillover) remains stabilizing macroeconomic conditions," said Huang, who is also a former member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank.
曾任中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會委員的黃益平表示：“然而（緩衝溢出效應的）關鍵仍然是穩定宏觀經濟狀況。”

"If the economy continuously weakens, the impact of US tightening will be amplified with a stronger tendency of investors to trim holdings in Chinese financial assets. However, if China's economy maintains steady growth and offers decent investment returns, the risk of capital outflows will ease," he said.
他稱：“如果經濟持續疲軟，美國緊縮政策的影響將進一步擴大，投資者將更傾向於減少對中國金融資產的持有。然而，如果中國經濟保持穩定增長並提供可觀的投資回報，資本外流的風險將得到緩解。”

China has strengthened efforts to stabilize the economy, a step that was decided at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, the Party's core leadership, on April 29 to step up macro policy adjustments and work hard to achieve annual economic and social development goals.
4月29日中共中央政治局會議決定，採取更強有力的措施穩定經濟，加強宏觀政策調整，努力實現年度經濟和社會發展目標。

Different regulators have since pledged more measures to support the economy, with the central bank vowing on Wednesday it would formulate new policy tools at an early date to stabilize economic growth, employment and price levels.
此後，各監管機構承諾採取更多措施支持經濟，人民銀行5月4日承諾將在近期制定新的政策工具，以穩定經濟增長、就業和價格水平。

Supportive measures in addition to those previously set for the year have become necessary not only due to the challenges brought by the Fed's tightening, but because of the shocks caused by a resurgence in domestic COVID-19 cases and a worsening in geopolitical tensions, experts said.
專家表示，除了先前為今年制定的措施外，還需要採取支持性措施，這不僅是因為美聯儲緊縮政策帶來的挑戰，也是因為國內新冠疫情反彈以及地緣政治緊張局勢的惡化所造成的衝擊。

China's service activity fell in April at the sharpest rate since the initial COVID lockdowns in early 2020, a private survey released by the Caixin media group said on Thursday.
財新傳媒集團5月5日發佈的一項調查顯示，中國4月份的服務業經營活動出現了自2020年初首次疫情封控以來最大幅度的下降。

The Caixin China General Services Purchasing Managers' Index, which gauges service activity, dropped from 42.0 in March to 36.2 in April, the lowest reading since February 2020 and having contracted for the second consecutive month.
衡量服務業活動的財新中國通用服務業經營活動指數從3月的42.0降至4月的36.2，這是自2020年2月以來的最低水平，並已連續兩個月收縮。

Huang said it is sensible for fiscal policy to beef up support by directly bolstering domestic demand, adding that reducing interest rates could help improve corporate cash flows but could intensify the pressure of stabilizing cross-border capital flows.
黃益平稱，財政政策通過直接提振國內需求來加強支持是明智之舉。他補充説，降低利率可能有助於改善企業現金流，但可能會加大穩定跨境資本流的壓力。

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said it could be advisable to issue special treasury bonds to accelerate infrastructure investment and subsidize smaller businesses, low-income groups, and hard-hit sectors.
粵開證券首席經濟學家羅志恆表示，可以發行特別國債以加快基礎設施投資、補貼小企業、低收入羣體和受重創行業。

Upon better containment of COVID-19 and proactive policy support, the Chinese economy is poised to stage a strong rebound after hitting a nadir in April, said Yin Yue, a macroeconomic analyst at Hongta Securities.
紅塔證券宏觀經濟分析師殷悦（音譯）表示，在疫情得到有效控制以及國內政策積極主動發力之下，中國經濟在4月份觸底後將迎來強勁回升。

Yin said the impact of the domestic COVID-19 outbreak is gradually fading with the restoration of supply chain activity, while infrastructure construction has maintained a buoyant expansion rate in April and helped offset downward economic pressures.
殷悦稱，隨着供應鏈的恢復，國內疫情的影響正在逐漸減弱，而4月份基礎設施建設保持了強勁的擴張速度，有助於抵消經濟下行壓力。

Yet experts caution that uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 situation and the external environment could still complicate China's economic recovery and weigh on the yuan.
然而，專家警告稱，圍繞新冠疫情和外部環境的不確定性仍可能使中國經濟復甦複雜化，並對人民幣造成壓力。

Zhang Liqing, director of the Central University of Finance and Economics' Center for International Finance Studies, said the yuan may continue to face depreciation pressure this year as US tightening underpins the dollar and the epidemic situation in major Chinese cities aggravates economic uncertainties.
中央財經大學國際金融研究中心主任張禮卿表示，今年人民幣可能繼續面臨貶值壓力，因為美國收緊貨幣政策支撐美元，而中國主要城市的疫情加劇了經濟不確定性。

The onshore yuan dropped to 6.62 against the dollar on Thursday afternoon, having weakened by nearly 4 percent since the beginning of the year.
5月5日下午，在岸人民幣兑美元匯率跌至6.62，自年初以來已貶值近4%。

來源：中國日報
編輯：董靜