中國金融四十人論壇的青年研究員認為，當前中國居民消費低迷有疫情因素，但是也有家庭可支配收入不足的原因。通過補貼中低收入羣體、精準的消費刺激政策和補償小微企業等措施可以有效提高家庭可支配收入，從而保證中國經濟穩定增長。
After several major shock waves of COVID-19 outbreaks since 2020, China"s economy has gradually recovered from the impact brought by the contagion, though recovery in household consumption has been relatively slow. There is still a certain gap between current household consumption levels and originally expected levels, or the trendline level for the sector. The gap is mainly attributable to some nonessential consumption sectors including education, entertainment, transportation and healthcare.
自2020年以來暴發了幾輪新冠疫情後，中國經濟已逐步從疫情影響中恢復過來，但是家庭消費水平的恢復仍然相對緩慢。當前家庭消費水平和原來預期的消費趨勢之間仍然存在着一定差距。這一差距主要源自包括教育、娛樂、交通和醫療等非必需消費領域的消費支出減少。
Trendlines are used to analyze the specific direction of a group of values or phenomena. There are two kinds of trendlines－uptrends and downtrends. Trendlines allow businesses to see differences at various points over a period of time. This helps foretell possible paths values might take in the future, and reveal performance, value and competitiveness factors of specific products and services, along with relevant business departments, such as sales.
趨勢線被用來分析一組價值或現象的具體方向，有上升和下降兩種趨勢線。通過趨勢線，企業可以看到一段時期內各個點的差異。這有助於預測價值的未來走向，揭示特定產品和服務以及相關業務部門（比如銷售）的表現、價值和競爭力。
The trendline hereafter mentioned is calculated based on data of total consumer spending collected through government surveys from 2013 to 2021.
以下所提到的趨勢線是基於2013年到2021年政府調查收集的消費者支出總額數據計算得出的。
Based on calculations using official data, we made a comparison between actual household consumption with calculated trendlines in the corresponding period and found that though the gap between household consumption in 2021 and the trendline is significantly narrower than that in 2020, the gap still exists, which stands at some 590 billion yuan ($92.6 billion).
基於對官方數據的計算，我們將實際家庭消費和對應時期計算所得的趨勢線做了一個比較，結果發現，2021年家庭消費和趨勢線之間的差距比2020年的差距要小得多，但是差距依然存在，約為5900億元。
If viewed from a consumption structure, among the eight major categories of consumer spending, the consumption of daily necessities, such as clothing, housing, food, tobacco and alcohol, in 2021 has basically returned to the trendline level shown before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, recovery in nonessential consumption sectors, such as durable goods and services, is slower than expected, with the gap between current consumption levels and the trendline level shown before the COVID-19 outbreak still relatively large. Among all sectors witnessing consumption gaps in 2021, education, culture and entertainment consumption make up the largest portions. Other nonessential－or optional－consumption sectors, though having seen narrower gaps, are still falling behind the trendline level, among which transportation and communication consumption makes up the major part, followed by education, culture and entertainment.
從消費結構來看，在八大消費類別中，服裝、住房、食品、煙草和酒精等日常必需品的消費在2021年已基本回歸至新冠疫情暴發前預期的趨勢水平。然而，耐用品和服務等非必需消費領域的復甦比預期要緩慢，當前消費水平與疫情前預期的趨勢水平之間的差距仍相對較大。2021年存在消費差距的所有領域中，教育、文化和娛樂消費佔比最大。其他非必需或可選消費領域儘管差距縮小，但仍落後於趨勢水平，其中交通、通信消費落後最多，其次是教育、文化和娛樂消費。
Based on the above information, it is obvious that there is still great potential for consumption recovery, and the key to unleashing that potential is to identify restrictive factors. Currently, there are two mainstream explanations surrounding the slow recovery in consumption. One is that the current COVID-19 situation is affecting the recovery of household consumption to a certain extent, especially that of services consumption. The other is that the slow recovery of consumption actually reflects that household incomes have not fully recovered.
基於上述信息可明顯看出，消費復甦還有很大潛力，釋放這一潛力的關鍵就是識別限制因素。目前，圍繞消費復甦緩慢有兩大主流解釋。其一是當前的新冠疫情在某種程度上影響了家庭消費的恢復，尤其是服務類消費。其二是消費復甦緩慢實際上反映出家庭收入還未完全恢復。
The impact of COVID-19 situation on goods consumption is obviously much smaller than that on services, so if COVID-19 situation is the main factor restricting household consumption, we are supposed to have a clear view of a structural differentiation in commodities and services consumption－that is, commodity consumption gradually inching closer to the trendline level, while service consumption deviates significantly from its own.
新冠疫情對商品消費的影響顯然比對服務消費的影響小得多，所以如果疫情是限制家庭消費的主要因素，我們應該對商品和服務消費的結構性差異有一個清晰認知，也就是，商品消費逐漸接近趨勢水平，而服務消費仍和趨勢水平有較大差距。
However, according to our calculations based on official data since 2021, the gap of actual consumer goods consumption between its trendline level－which has been narrowing from the start of the year－has remained steady since July 2021, with no signs of further narrowing for the remainder of the year. The gap between services consumption and its trendline level is even larger, reflecting shocks of several rounds of domestic COVID-19 resurgences to the sector.
但是，根據我們基於2021年以來官方數據的計算，實際消費品消費和趨勢線之間的差距從2022年初就開始縮小，而且自2021年7月以來一直保持穩定，下半年也沒有顯示出繼續縮小的跡象。服務消費和趨勢水平之間的差距甚至更大，反映出國內疫情數次反覆對服務行業的衝擊。
The analysis, together with the figures, tell us the significance of raising household disposable incomes in maintaining China"s stable growth this year.
分析和數據結合在一起，告訴我們提高家庭可支配收入對於保持中國今年經濟穩定增長的重要性。
Household disposable consumption is not only the foundation for better livelihoods, but also a pillar for stable economic growth. The current relative sluggish consumption performance is certainly due to the pandemic, but a more important reason is the lack of disposable income. Therefore, increasing disposable income and shaping good income expectations are the basis of, and key to, promoting consumption.
家庭可支配收入不僅是改善民生的基石，也是經濟穩定增長的支柱。當前消費增長緩慢肯定和疫情有關，但是更重要的原因是缺乏可支配收入。因此，增加可支配收入和形成良好的收入預期是促進消費的基礎和關鍵。
Our first thought to this end is that macroeconomic policies should always focus on "steady growth", as was highlighted in many recent top meetings. Continued efforts are needed to ensure a reasonable economic growth rate and full employment, and consolidate the economic foundation to improve household incomes. In this process, fiscal policy is particularly important. It is necessary to demonstrate a clear expansion in the level of fiscal expenditure growth while having clear visibility of the bottom line－the growth rate of fiscal expenditure cannot be lower than the nominal GDP growth rate.
對此我們的第一個建議是宏觀政策應該始終聚焦“穩定增長”，正如近期多次高層會議所強調的那樣。我們要不斷致力於確保合理的經濟增長速度和充分就業，築牢經濟基礎以提高家庭收入。在這一過程中，財政政策尤其重要。既有必要展現出財政支出水平的明顯擴張態勢，同時也要明確底線——財政支出的增長率不能低於名義GDP增長率。
Second, the structure of public spending should be continuously optimized. In addition to tax and fee reductions for the corporate sector, subsidies for low and middle-income groups should also be strengthened. During economic downturns, vulnerable families are the first to suffer. By issuing temporary subsidies to low-income groups, the elderly and infants, such a policy can help achieve two goals－protecting people"s livelihoods and helping boost consumption. A common concern is that subsidies will primarily translate into savings rather than consumption. It should be noted that if subsidies are mainly transformed into savings rather than consumption, there will be no pressure on inflation. No monetary and fiscal policy space will be consumed, and the policy cost will be very low.
其次，應該不斷優化公共支出結構。除了對企業的減税降費，也要加強對中低收入羣體的補貼。在經濟低迷時期，困難家庭是最先受苦的。通過給低收入羣體、老人和嬰兒發放臨時補貼，這類政策有助於達到兩個目標——維持百姓的生計和幫助促進消費。一個共同關注的問題是這些補貼主要會轉化為積蓄而不是消費。值得注意的是，如果補貼主要轉化為積蓄而非消費，對通貨膨脹將不會產生壓力。貨幣和財政政策空間不會被消耗，政策成本也會很低。
Third, the government should implement more precise and powerful consumption stimulus policies based on prices and income elasticity of different consumer goods. The income and price elasticity of optional consumption sectors, such as education, entertainment, transportation and medical care, is relatively high, and these sectors are exactly where sluggish consumption is witnessed. Consumer coupons, consumption subsidies and other means of encouraging measures should focus on these sectors to obtain greater policy effect.
第三，政府應該基於不同消費品的價格和收入彈性實施更精準更有力的消費刺激政策。教育、娛樂、交通和醫療等可選消費領域的收入和價格彈性相對較高，正是這些領域消費增長緩慢。消費券、消費補貼和其他鼓勵消費的手段應該集中於這些領域以獲得更大的政策效果。
Last but not least it is important to alleviate the anxiety brought by the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic for small and micro enterprises and self-employed business owners. These very market entities are all associated with mass employment, especially low- and middle-income earners. The government can set up a special fund to cover their expenses related to COVID-19 prevention, such as nucleic acid testing, quarantine costs and treatment.
最後但同樣重要的是，應該減輕新冠疫情的不確定性給小微企業和個體工商户帶來的焦慮情緒。這些市場主體和大眾就業緊密相關，尤其是中低收入者。政府可以設立專項資金來覆蓋他們的疫情防控相關費用，比如核酸檢測、隔離成本和治療。
Compensation measures for market players that have suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic should be formulated, and market players should be informed in advance that they may be compensated for their operating losses due to pandemic prevention and control work. Developing targeted capital support to help smaller enterprises resume operations is also helpful to this end. Such efforts will strengthen market players" confidence in investment and operations, and enable them to play bigger roles in supporting the nation"s stable growth.
對遭受疫情打擊的市場主體應採取補償措施，並提前告知市場主體他們因疫情防控而承受的運營損失可以獲得補償。精準投放扶持資金來幫助中小企業復產也有助於緩解市場主體的焦慮情緒。這些舉措將能加強市場主體對於投資和運營的信心，從而讓他們對支持國家經濟穩定增長髮揮更大的作用。
本文觀點不代表《中國日報》的觀點。
英文來源：中國日報
作者：中國金融四十人論壇青年研究員朱鶴、盛中明
翻譯&編輯：丹妮