本文轉自：中國日報網
專家表示，隨著一攬子刺激措施的實施，中國經濟正逐漸從最近的新冠疫情中恢復，中國第二季度經濟有望實現正增長，下半年中國經濟可能出現顯著回升，但消費通脹上行可能給經濟增長帶來挑戰。
Workers transport materials at an assembly workshop of CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive Co., Ltd. in Zhuzhou, Central China's Hunan province, July 5, 2022. [Photo/Xinhua]
China is likely to see a notable rebound in economic growth in the second half of the year as a package of stimulus policy measures takes effect, but rising consumer inflation may pose a challenge, experts said.
專家表示，隨著一攬子刺激措施的實施，下半年中國經濟可能出現顯著回升，但消費通脹上行可能給經濟增長帶來挑戰。
The national economy is gradually recovering from recent COVID-19 shocks, they said, and the country will likely see positive growth in the second quarter.
專家認為，中國經濟正逐漸從最近的新冠疫情中恢復，中國第二季度經濟有望實現正增長。
Looking at the rest of the year, they expected the easing of strong fiscal policy and targeted monetary policy to prop up growth. This could include forceful infrastructure spending and stronger support for small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing.
專家預計，下半年貨幣政策和財政政策都會有所寬鬆，可能包括加強基礎設施建設支出，以及對中小企業和製造業的更有力支援。
Meanwhile, inflation in the cost of manufactured products in China rose in June at its slowest rate since March 2021. This was brought about with the help of the government's effective measures to reboot work and production reduced by the pandemic. The efforts were directed at stabilizing key industrial and supply chains and ensuring stable supplies and prices while leaving room for further stimulus policy measures to shore up growth.
與此同時，由於政府採取有效措施應對疫情導致的停工減產，中國6月份製造業產品成本通脹率創下2021年3月以來的最低水平。這些措施旨在穩定關鍵行業和供應鏈，確保穩定的供應和價格，同時為進一步刺激政策留下空間，以支援增長。
Chen Weidong, director of the research institute at the Bank of China, said China's economy has gradually stabilized with the help of a series of government stimulus measures after a softening of economic activity since March amid resurgent domestic COVID-19 cases.
中國銀行研究院院長陳衛東表示，自3月份以來，由於國內疫情出現反彈，經濟活動有所放緩，在政府一系列刺激措施的幫助下，中國經濟已逐漸穩定。
As the pandemic's impact further eases and policy stimulus takes effect, the economy will rebound in both quarters of the second half, Chen said.
陳衛東稱，隨著疫情的影響進一步緩解，政策刺激的生效，經濟將在下半年回暖。
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said China's GDP is likely to grow by around 0.5 percent in the second quarter, mainly fueled by the recovery in June amid a gradual resumption of work and production.
中國民生銀行首席經濟學家溫彬表示，中國第二季度國內生產總值（GDP）將實現正增長，這主要得益於6月份逐步復工復產。
China's producer price index, which gauges manufactured product prices, increased 6.1 percent year-on-year in June, following a 6.4 percent rise in the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday.
國家統計局7月9日表示，6月份生產者價格指數（PPI）同比增長6.1%，上月漲幅為6.4%。
China's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, rose 2.5 percent year-on-year in June, compared with a 2.1 percent rise in May, according to NBS data.
根據國家統計局資料，6月份消費者價格指數（CPI）同比上漲2.5%，而5月份CPI漲幅為2.1%。
Wen said consumer inflation came in slightly higher than market expectations, warning of pressures from rising pork prices, imported inflation risks and a gradual pickup in demand.
溫彬稱，消費通脹略高於市場預期，並警告豬肉價格上漲、輸入性通脹風險和需求逐步回升帶來的壓力。
As for the second half of the year, he said his team expects consumer price index inflation to rise modestly and producer price index inflation to trend down, so inflation will not put significant pressure on monetary policy easing.
溫彬表示，他的團隊預計今年下半年CPI將溫和上升，PPI將呈下降趨勢，因此通脹不會給貨幣寬鬆政策帶來重壓。
Compared with the soaring prices in other major economies, China's overall price level is generally stable. Inflation hit a new 40-year high in May in the United States, as the consumer price index rose 8.6 percent year-on-year, US Labor Department data showed.
與其他主要經濟體的物價飆升相比，中國的整體價格水平總體平穩。美國勞工部資料顯示，5月份美國通貨膨脹創下40年新高，消費者價格指數同比上漲8.6%。
The Chinese government has already taken solid steps to keep overall prices within a reasonable range. The National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic regulator, recently said it is considering releasing pork from central reserves and guiding localities to release extra stocks in a timely manner to prevent sharp increases in hog prices.
中國政府已採取切實措施，將整體價格控制在合理區間內。國家發展和改革委員會最近表示，正研究啟動投放中央豬肉儲備，並指導地方適時聯動投放儲備，防範生豬價格過快上漲。
Liu Zhicheng, director of the commodity market division at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research's market and price institute, said there is little likelihood of further hog price gains in the next few months, considering factors such as China's sufficient supply, slowing pork consumption in July and August and the recent pig feed price declines.
中國宏觀經濟研究院市場與價格研究所大宗商品研究室主任劉志成表示，考慮到中國生豬供應充足、7月和8月豬肉消費放緩以及近期豬飼料價格下跌等因素，未來幾個月生豬價格沒有進一步上漲的空間。
Zhou Maohua, an analyst at China Everbright Bank, said the latest inflation figures show a steady recovery in domestic demand, especially in the services sector.
光大銀行分析師周茂華表示，最新的通脹資料顯示國內需求穩步復甦，尤其是服務業。
Citing some better-than-expected economic indicators in May and June, Zhou said China is likely to post growth in the second quarter. He called for more efforts to further resume production and ensure stable supplies and prices, and monetary policy easing to boost domestic demand, as well as stronger support for SMEs and key projects.
周茂華引用了5月和6月一些好於預期的經濟指標稱，中國經濟很可能在第二季度實現增長。他呼籲加大力度進一步恢復生產，確保供應和價格穩定，寬鬆貨幣政策以刺激內需，並加強對中小企業和重點專案的支援。