原文发表于美国时间2020-10-12
发生了什么事情？
美国公司开始报告第三季度的公司业绩财报，在经历如此艰难的一年后，任何事情都可能发生。
这意味着什么？
过去三个月时间里，分析师们对公司在给定季度营收的预估值给予两年多以来的首次增长。不过他们仍预期美国公司公布的第三季度同比去年下滑21%。这将是自2009年第二季度以来第二大的季度利润下跌幅度。
那些不论如何需求都很稳定的公司们（如医疗保健公司、公用事业公司和必须消费品公司）以及能够抵御疫情冲击的科技公司的业绩表现最佳，不过即便这些公司，分析师预期它们的利润同比去年第三季度下滑1%-4%。
能源股的表现最差：预期能源股公司公布的业绩将同比去年下滑113%。
为何值得关注？
对于市场而言：控制预期
84%的美国公司在夏天公布的第二季度营收高于市场预期，这有利于提振公司股价，因为投资者接受了疫情对经济的影响。
不过在第三季度财报公布期，投资者的买卖行为可能会受到将举行的美国大选的预期波动日益增多的严重影响。如果投资者不关注公司的基本面，则在财报公布后的股价走势可能不如通常那样有价值。
更大的图景：永远乐观
基于公司目前的股价以及分析师给出估值之间的差异，美股市场预期明年将上涨8%。但是涨幅可能最大的行业板块会让您惊讶：分析师期望陷入麻烦的能源股将上涨45%，涨幅随后的是医疗保健、银行股和“通讯服务”股票如谷歌母公司Alphabet，脸书和奈飞。
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这篇文章已被翻译成中文。原英文作者Finimize。如英文版本和中文版本之间有任何不一致，以英文版本为准。该文章中的分析仅为提供信息，不是也不应该被视为推销或招揽购买任何证券。文章中讨论的一般市场活动、行业或领域趋势、或其它基于广泛的经济或政治条件的内容，不应被解释为研究结果或投资建议。讨论中提及包括的特定证券、商品、货币、或其它产品均不构成IB推荐购买，出售或持有此类投资的建议。本材料不是也不意图针对个别客户的特定财务条件、投资目标或要求。在根据本材料采取行动之前，您应该考虑是否适合您的具体情况，并在必要时寻求专业建议。
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