亞馬遜本週四發佈的2021年一季度財報顯示，亞馬遜連續兩個季度營收超過1000億美元，大象起舞，亞馬遜本週股價大漲超過7%，市值再創新高達到1.8萬億美元(11.6萬億人民幣)，成為僅次於微軟和蘋果的全世界第三大市值公司。
在過去的26年時間裏，亞馬遜從一粒種子長成參天大樹，是極致成長股的典型代表。亞馬遜1994年僅是一家在網上開始賣書的小公司，而2020年營業收入高達3860億美元(25000億人民幣)。
金牌會員、第三方銷售平台和亞馬遜雲是亞馬遜的三大支柱。亞馬遜金牌會員2020年就高達2億户，僅年費就為亞馬遜貢獻高達200億美元以上的收入；亞馬遜云為200個國家成千上萬家企業提供支撐服務，僅此一項過去12個月滾動銷售收入就達到500億美元；而支撐亞馬遜第三方銷售平台的亞馬遜物流可以與聯邦快遞等物流巨頭平分秋色。
在每年年報發佈之時，世界首富、亞馬遜CEO貝佐斯都會附上一封致股東的信。這些信在很大程度上揭開了亞馬遜瘋狂成長之謎，那就是20多年一以貫之的長線思維。就像貝佐斯在2013年致股東的信中説的“顧客至上，而不是盯住競爭對手，對創新發自內心的激情，渴望做得更好和願意長線思維。良好的執行加上一點點運氣，第三方銷售平台(Marketplace)、金牌會員(Prime)和亞馬遜雲(AWS)在為客户提供服務的同時，並在很多年都有良好的經濟回報。”
貝佐斯致股東的信既是企業管理的聖經，也是普通投資者尋找成長股的指南。如何尋找成長股，或許正像貝佐斯自1997年致股東的信開始就強調的“一切關乎長期”、 “市場領先地位比短期業績更重要”、“如果需要在漂亮的會計報表和最大化未來現金流折現之間做出選擇的話，我們選擇現金流”、“從長遠來看，客户的利益與股東的利益是一致的。”
一個好的投資者理應對商業運行充滿好奇，而閲讀貝佐斯1997年-2020年致股東信就像時光倒流，帶我們去思考為什麼亞馬遜會在每個成長的關鍵時刻做出正確的決定，一粒種子是如何長成參天大樹的。
(注：《巴菲特致股東的信》已經出版多年，但《貝佐斯致股東的信》並無合集，由於貝佐斯卸任亞馬遜CEO，2020年致股東的信或將成為其撰寫的最後一封。鑑於諸多讀者對24封信合集充滿期待，券商中國記者手動翻譯了貝佐斯1997年-2020年致股東信。為了更好傳達貝佐斯原意，我們也附帶貼出其語言風格強烈的英文原文。)
一、1997年：一切關乎長期(Its All About the Long Term)
亞馬遜在1997年實現了很多里程碑式的跨越：截至到年底，我們服務了150萬的客户，收入同比增長838%到1.48億美元，儘管遭遇了新進入者們的激烈競爭，但我們還是持續擴大了我們的市場領先地位。
Amazon.com passed many milestones in 1997: by year-end， we had served more than 1.5 million customers， yielding 838% revenue growth to $147.8 million， and extended our market leadership despite aggressive competitive entry。
我們相信對於我們成功最根本的衡量方式是為股東創造的長期價值。這一價值將會是我們夯實、擴大我們市場領先地位的直接結果，我們的市場領先地位越超前，我們商業模式就越強大。市場領先地位可以直接轉化為更高的收入、更好的盈利能力、更快的資本週轉和與此對應的更高的資本回報率。
We believe that a fundamental measure of our success will be the shareholder value we create over the long term。 This value will be a direct result of our ability to extend and solidify our current market leadership position。 The stronger our market leadership， the more powerful our economic model。 Market leadership can translate directly to higher revenue， higher profitability， greater capital velocity， and correspondingly stronger returns on invested capital。
我們的決策一貫圍繞長期價值這個中心。我們首先是以市場領先地位相關指標來衡量自己：客户和收入的增長、客户的復購率、品牌的認知度。我們過去和未來都會積極致力於擴大和成倍地擴大我們的客户基數、品牌和永久的基礎設施。
Our decisions have consistently reflected this focus。 We first measure ourselves in terms of the metrics most indicative of our market leadership: customer and revenue growth， the degree to which our customers continue to purchase from us on a repeat basis， and the strength of our brand。 We have invested and will continue to invest aggressively to expand and leverage our customer base， brand， and infrastructure as we move to establish an enduring franchise。
我們將持續毫無保留地以客户為中心。
We will continue to focus relentlessly on our customers。
我們的投資決策將從擴大公司長期的市場領導地位出發，而非短期業績或者短期華爾街的反應。
We will continue to make investment decisions in light of long-term market leadership considerations rather than short-term profitability considerations or short-term Wall Street reactions。
我們對那些能夠提升我們市場領先優勢的項目下重注，可能有一些項目成功，另外一些失敗，但無論成功還是失敗的案例都讓我們學到有價值的一課。
We will make bold rather than timid investment decisions where we see a sufficient probability of gaining market leadership advantages。 Some of these investments will pay off， others will not， and we will have learned another valuable lesson in either case。
如果需要在漂亮的會計報表和最大化未來的現金流折現之間做出選擇的話，我們選擇現金流。
When forced to choose between optimizing the appearance of our GAAP accounting and maximizing the present value of future cash flows， well take the cash flows。
當我們做出大膽的戰略抉擇時，我們將在競爭許可的最大範圍內與股東分享我們的戰略想法，以至於股東可以評價我們的投資是否真正從鞏固我們長期市場領導地位的角度出發。
We will share our strategic thought processes with you when we make bold choices (to the extent competitive pressures allow)， so that you may evaluate for yourselves whether we are making rational long-term leadership investments。
我們努力保持節儉文化，將錢用在刀刃上，我們明白持續增強成本意識的重要性，尤其是在我們的經營尚處於淨虧損狀態的當下。
We will work hard to spend wisely and maintain our lean culture。 We understand the importance of continually reinforcing a cost-conscious culture， particularly in a business incurring net losses。
我們將在提升長期盈利能力和短期資本支出之間保持平衡，在當前，我們給予成長更高的優先權，因為我們相信規模對我們商業模式至關重要。
We will balance our focus on growth with emphasis on long-term profitability and capital management。 At this stage， we choose to prioritize growth because we believe that scale is central to achieving the potential of our business model。
二、1998年：人才的三個標準
我們致力於打造全世界最以客户為中心的公司。在我們心中，客户聰明且有辨別力就如公理般不言自明，我們的品牌形象紮根於現實，而非其他。我們的客户告訴我們和他們的朋友：選擇亞馬遜是因為這裏有更多的選擇、更友好的界面、低價和配送服務。
We intend to build the worlds most customer-centric company。 We hold as axiomatic that customers are perceptive and smart， and that brand image follows reality and not the other way around。 Our customers tell us that they choose Amazon.com and tell their friends about us because of the selection， ease-of-use，low prices， and service that we deliver。
但是我們不能有絲毫懈怠。我時時提醒我們的員工要有畏懼感，每個醒來的清晨我都會感到恐懼，不是因為競爭的壓力，而是因為我們的顧客。我們的顧客成就了我們，他們是我們存在的原因，我們對他們負有義務。我們認為，顧客對我們是忠誠的，直到有一天另有他人提供了超越我們的服務。
But there is no rest for the weary。 I constantly remind our employees to be afraid， to wake up every morning terrified。 Not of our competition， but of our customers。 Our customers have made our business what it is， they are the ones with whom we have a relationship， and they are the ones to whom we owe a great obligation。 And we consider them to be loyal to us – right up until the second that someone else offers them a better service。
在我們的招聘中，我們經常問人們三個問題：
During our hiring meetings， we ask people to consider three questions before making a decision:
你欽佩此人嗎？如果你認為此人是你在生活中欽佩的對象，你能夠向他學習或者以他為榜樣。至於我自己，我一直就是一個努力與我所欽佩的人一起工作的人，因此我鼓勵員工也是如此挑剔的，生命太短暫，不要與不認可的人一起共事。
Will you admire this person？ If you think about the people you‘ve admired in your life， they are probably people you’ve been able to learn from or take an example from。 For myself， Ive always tried hard to work only with people I admire， and I encourage folks here to be just as demanding。 Life is definitely too short to do otherwise。
此人的加入能提升團隊的效率嗎？我們想抵禦熵，持續提高用人標準。我提建議員工可以想象公司未來5年後的樣子，希望在那時，我們中的每一位都會環顧四周説：“我們標準是如此之高，我很慶幸當初加入這個團隊。”
Will this person raise the average level of effectiveness of the group they‘re entering？ We want to fight entropy。 The bar has to continuously go up。 I ask people to visualize the company 5 years from now。 At that point， each of us should look around and say， “The standards are so high now -- boy， I’m glad I got in when I did！”
此人在哪個維度上會成為超級明星？許多人都有獨特的技能、興趣和見解來豐富我們的工作環境，但這些獨特之處可能與工作並不相關。
Along what dimension might this person be a superstar？ Many people have unique skills， interests， and perspectives that enrich the work environment for all of us。 It‘s often something that’s not even related to their jobs。 One person here is a National Spelling Bee champion (1978， I believe)。 I suspect it doesnt help her in her everyday work， but it does make working here more fun if you can occasionally snag her in the hall with a quick challenge: “onomatopoeia！”
(注：《一網打盡》一書中曾講到過，亞馬遜認為，許多公司在發展過程中，都放低了招聘標準，為的是滿足他們的人力資源需求，但亞馬遜一直在提高人才標準，併發明瞭“抬杆者”項目，“抬杆者”也即bar raisers參與到每次招聘中，有權否決所招聘的人。)
三、1999年：擁有100股亞馬遜股票你擁有什麼
在最近斯坦福的一次演講中，一位年輕的女士用話筒問我一個很好的問題：“我擁有100股亞馬遜股票，我擁有的是什麼？”
At a recent event at the Stanford University campus， a young woman came to the microphone and asked me a great question: “I have 100 shares of Amazon.com。 What do I own？”
我吃了一驚因為此前從未聽過此類問題，至少沒有如此簡單直白問法。你擁有什麼？你擁有的是一個出色的電商平台的一小部分。
I was surprised I hadnt heard it before， at least not so simply put。 What do you own？ You own a piece of the leading e-commerce platform。
亞馬遜平台是由品牌、顧客、技術、物流構成。我們有深耕已久的電商經驗、富有激情和勇於創新的團隊。我們自2000年開始服務1700萬客户，我們有以客户為中心的廣泛美譽、有最出色的電商系統軟件和聚焦於客户的配送能力和基礎設施。
The Amazon.com platform is comprised of brand， customers， technology， distribution capability， deep e-commerce expertise， and a great team with a passion for innovation and a passion for serving customers well。 We begin the year 2000 with 17 million customers， a world-wide reputation for customer focus， the best e-commerce software systems， and purpose-built distribution and customer service infrastructure。
我們相信我們已經來到了這個臨界點：我們的電商平台將以更快的速度鋪開新的業務，更高質量的客户體驗、更低的成本、更大的成功幾率和擁有比其他任何公司更快上規模和更好盈利的路徑。
We believe we have reached a “tipping point，” where this platform allows us to launch new ecommerce businesses faster， with a higher quality of customer experience， a lower incremental cost， a higher chance of success， and a faster path to scale and profitability than any other company。
我們的願景是打造地球上最以客户為中心的平台，在這裏客户可以來購買任何他想買的東西。我們不是單獨行動，我們和成千上萬的各類合作伙伴一起並肩作戰。我們悉心傾聽客户，從客户的利益出發去去發明，實現他們的個性化購物，我們所有的努力都是為了贏得客户信任。
Our vision is to use this platform to build Earth‘s most customer-centric company， a place where customers can come to find and discover anything and everything they might want to buy online。 We won’t do so alone， but together with what will be thousands of partners of all sizes。 Well listen to customers， invent on their behalf， and personalize the store for each of them， all while working hard to continue to earn their trust。
有一點可能是非常清楚的，就是這個平台提供了非同尋常的由規模經濟帶來的機會，假如我們能夠利用好它的話，這個機會對於客户和股東來説都是非常有價值的。儘管依然有很多風險和複雜性，我們將義無反顧地前行。
As is probably clear， this platform affords an unusually large scale opportunity， one that should prove very valuable for both customers and shareholders if we can make the most of it。 Despite the many risks and complexities， we are deeply committed to doing so。
四、2000年：當股價跌去了80%
哎呀，這真是資本市場殘酷的一年，亞馬遜的股東也當然難以迴避，當寫這封信的時候，我們的股價相比去年同期跌去了80%。儘管股價如此，但從公司本身來説，大多數指標都顯示公司基本面前所未有的強勁。我們的客户高達2000萬户，從1999年1400萬客户的基數上起跳。我們的銷售規模2000年達到27.6億美元，而1999年這一數字為16.4億美元。
Ouch。 Its been a brutal year for many in the capital markets and certainly for Amazon.com shareholders。 As of this writing， our shares are down more than 80% from when I wrote you last year。 Nevertheless， by almost any measure， Amazon.com the company is in a stronger position now than at any time in its past.We served 20 million customers in 2000， up from 14 million in 1999.Sales grew to $2.76 billion in 2000 from $1.64 billion in 1999。
因此，公司今天的基本面比一年前好，為什麼股價會相比一年前跌去這麼多？就像著名的投資大師格雷厄姆·本傑明所説的，“股價短期是投票機，長期是稱重機。”很顯然在1999年的大泡沫中，投票機比稱重機更主宰市場；我們是期望被稱重的公司，所有的公司長期來説一定會被稱重。隨着時間的推移，隨着我們的埋頭苦幹，我們希望成為一個越來越重的公司。
So， if the company is better positioned today than it was a year ago， why is the stock price so much lower than it was a year ago？ As the famed investor Benjamin Graham said， ‘’In the short term， the stock market is a voting machine； in the long term， it‘s a weighing machine。’‘ Clearly there was a lot of voting going on in the boom year of ’99—and much less weighing。 Were a company that wants to be weighed， and over time， we will be—over the long term， all companies are。 In the meantime， we have our heads down working to build a heavier and heavier company。
(注，據《一網打盡》，2000年貝佐斯在一次全體大會上説，當股價漲30%時，你並沒感覺你比過去聰明瞭30%，因此股票價格跌30%時，你也不應該感覺比過去愚蠢了30%。)
五、2001年：為什麼要關注現金流
在每年的致股東信中(包括今年的)，我們都附上1997年的致股東的信，用來幫助投資者決定亞馬遜是不是他們想要的投資，也用來幫助我們審視自身有沒有偏離初衷。我想我們沒有背離初衷。
In every annual letter (including this one)， we attach a copy of our original 1997 letter to shareholders to help investors decide if Amazon.com is the right kind of investment for them， and to help us determine if we have remained true to our original goals and values。 I think we have。
在1997年致股東的信中，我們寫到，“如果非要在漂亮的會計報表和最大化未來現金流折現之間做出選擇的話，我們選擇現金流。”為什麼聚焦於現金流指標？因為股價就是一家公司未來每股現金流的折現，因此，現金流比其他任何單一指標在長期更能説明一家公司的股價。
In that 1997 letter， we wrote， “When forced to choose between optimizing the appearance of our GAAP accounting and maximizing the present value of future cash flows， we‘ll take the cash flows。”Why focus on cash flows？ Because a share of stock is a share of a company’s future cash flows， and， as a result， cash flows more than any other single variable seem to do the best job of explaining a companys stock price over the long term。
就像我們以前多次討論過的，我們堅信股東的長期利益與我們客户的利益密切相關，如果我們行事正確，今天的顧客明天會買得更多，我們將吸引更多的顧客，也將增加更多的現金流和增加股東的長期價值。我們致力於用惠及顧客同時惠及股東利益的方式來提升我們在電子商務領域的領導地位。
As I‘ve discussed many times before， we are firm believers that the long-term interests of shareholders are tightly linked to the interests of our customers: if we do our jobs right， today’s customers will buy more tomorrow， we‘ll add more customers in the process， and it will all add up to more cash flow and more long-term value for our shareholders。 To that end， we are committed to extending our leadership in e-commerce in a way that benefits customers and therefore， inherently， investors--you can’t do one without the other。
六、2002年：兼顧低價和客户體驗
我們令人興奮的而又沒有被很好理解的特異之處在於，人們觀察到我們在堅定地在提供世界一流的客户體驗的同時，兼顧了低價。對於傳統商店來説，良好的客户體驗和低價雙重目標之間看起來是矛盾的，它們必須在良好的客户體驗與低價之間做出選擇。亞馬遜是如何做到的？
One of our most exciting peculiarities is poorly understood。 People see that were determined to offer both world-leading customer experience and the lowest possible prices， but to some this dual goal seems paradoxical if not downright quixotic。
Traditional stores face a time-tested tradeoff between offering high-touch customer experience on the one hand and the lowest possible prices on the other。 How can Amazon.com be trying to do both？
答案在於，我們將改善我們客户體驗的成本相當大程度轉化為固定成本，比如不匹配的搜索，延展產品信息，個性化建議和其他新軟件功能。當改善客户體驗的成本被固化後，提升客户體驗的成本在總體銷售收入中的佔比會隨着業務規模擴大而快速縮小，而且改善客户體驗中的可變成本，比如配送成本，會隨着我們模型中錯誤的修正而減少，修正錯誤在提升客户體驗的同時也降低了成本。
The answer is that we transform much of customer experience—such as unmatched selection， extensive product information， personalized recommendations， and other new software features—into largely a fixed expense。 With customer experience costs largely fixed (more like a publishing model than a retailing model)， our costs as a percentage of sales can shrink rapidly as we grow our business。 Moreover， customer experience costs that remain variable—such as the variable portion of fulfillment costs—improve in our model as we reduce defects。 Eliminating defects improves costs and leads to better customer experience。
(注：亞馬遜以顧客為中心絕不停留在説説層面，過去8年主動將亞馬遜雲降價40次，亞馬遜在會議室留有一把空椅子，貝佐斯説這是為顧客留的。)
七、2003年：長線的戰略價值
長線思考是所有者本身的要求和結果。所有者和租户是完全不同的兩種思維。我知道，有一對夫婦把他們的房子租出去了，住進來的租客將聖誕樹釘在硬木地板上而非把它豎在地板上。不可否認，這是非常無良的租户。但是沒有房東會如此短視，相似地，一些投資者就如同短期租客，快速買進賣出，他們只是暫時租了短期“擁有”的股票。
Long-term thinking is both a requirement and an outcome of true ownership。 Owners are different from tenants。 I know of a couple who rented out their house， and the family who moved in nailed their Christmas tree to the hardwood floors instead of using a tree stand。 Expedient， I suppose， and admittedly these were particularly bad tenants， but no owner would be so short-sighted。 Similarly， many investors are effectively short-term tenants，turning their portfolios so quickly they are really just renting the stocks that they temporarily “own。”
我們自1997年致股東的信中就強調了長期戰略，長期戰略並非抽象的理念，而是驅動我們做許多具體決定的動因，我用客户體驗情境來解釋下“長期”這個並非抽象的理念，客户體驗包括客户與我們做生意的方方面面，從產品定價到品類選擇；從人機交互界面到我們如何打包和運輸商品。我們留給客户的體驗是我們生意的重要驅動力。
We emphasized our long-term views in our 1997 letter to shareholders， our first as a public company，because that approach really does drive making many concrete， non-abstract decisions。 I‘d like to discuss a few of these non-abstract decisions in the context of customer experience。 At Amazon.com， we use the term customer experience broadly。 It includes every customer-facing aspect of our business—from our product prices to our selection， from our website’s user interface to how we package and ship items。 The customer experience we create is by far the most important driver of our business。
我們在設計客户體驗時，我們將長期所有者的思維牢記心中，我們試着將關乎客户體驗大大小小的決定都放在長期這個框架下。
As we design our customer experience， we do so with long-term owners in mind。 We try to make all of our customer experience decisions—big and small—in that framework。
比如，我們在1995年上線亞馬遜不久，就給了客户評價商品的留言權利。現在客户評價留言已經成為了亞馬遜的常態，但當時我們受到很多供貨方類似“我們懂得我們的生意嗎”的抱怨。“你賣東西賺錢，為什麼會允許網站上出現負面商品評價”。就像我們的一位焦點成員所説的，我知道有時負面評價或者冷淡評語會改變我某次的購買決定，短期會令我們失去一些銷售，但長期來説，讓顧客做出更好的購買決定終將有利於公司發展。
For instance， shortly after launching Amazon.com in 1995， we empowered customers to review products。 While now a routine Amazon.com practice， at the time we received complaints from a few vendors， basically wondering if we understood our business: “You make money when you sell things—why would you allow negative reviews on your website？” Speaking as a focus group of one， I know Ive sometimes changed my mind before making purchases on Amazon.com as a result of negative or lukewarm customer reviews。 Though negative reviews cost us some sales in the short term， helping customers make better purchase decisions ultimately pays off for the company。
另外一個例子是我們的訂單即時更新功能，它會提醒你已經購買過某一商品，顧客往往過着繁忙的生活，經常會記不得已經購買過某物，比如説一年前購買過一張DVD或CD。當我們啓動訂單即時更新功能，我們能夠觀測到，我們的銷售從統計數據上有輕微的下降。對顧客有利？肯定是。對股東有利？當然是，從長期而言。
Another example is our Instant Order Update feature， which reminds you that you‘ve already bought a particular item。 Customers lead busy lives and cannot always remember if they’ve already purchased a particular item， say a DVD or CD they bought a year earlier。 When we launched Instant Order Update， we were able to measure with statistical significance that the feature slightly reduced sales。 Good for customers？ Definitely。 Good for shareowners？ Yes， in the long run。
我們全力打造的更昂貴的客户體驗是每日免費配送和不斷降價，消除次品，提升生產效率並把所節省的費用以低價的方式返還給客户是我們長期的決定。銷量的提升需要時間，降價往往損害當期運營結果。但是，從長期而言，全力以赴的“價格-成本結構環”將給我們帶來更有價值更強勁的商業。
Since many of our costs， such as software engineering， are relatively fixed and many of our variable costs can also be better managed at larger scale， driving more volume through our cost structure reduces those costs as a percentage of sales。 To give one small example， engineering a feature like Instant Order Update for use by 40 million customers costs nowhere near 40 times what it would cost to do the same for 1 million customers。
我們的價格策略並不是試圖利潤最大化，而是追求最大化的客户價值，從而在長期創造更大的利基。比如，我們用比原行業低得多的利潤水平去銷售珠寶，客户最終會明白物有所值，這個策略將長期提升股東價值。我們有一個努力工作並具有創新精神的團隊，他們以客户為中心和以長期為中心。假以時日，客户的利益和股東的利益都會得到提升。
Our pricing strategy does not attempt to maximize margin percentages， but instead seeks to drive maximum value for customers and thereby create a much larger bottom line—in the long term。 For example， were targeting gross margins on our jewelry sales to be substantially lower than industry norms because we believe over time—customers figure these things out—this approach will produce more value for shareholders.We have a strong team of hard-working， innovative folks building Amazon.com。 They are focused on the customer and focused on the long term。 On that time scale， the interests of shareowners and customers arealigned。
(注：貝佐斯曾説過，我每天都是傳教士而不是僱傭兵，傳教士有正義目標，並試圖讓世界變得更美好，而僱傭兵則唯利是圖，為了金錢和權利就可以掃蕩所有攔路人。但悖論是，通常傳教士最終會賺錢更多。)
八、2004:我們最看重的財務指標
我們最看重並在長期最想提升的財務指標，是每股自由現金流。為什麼不像很多公司那樣，首先關注的和最關注的是利潤或者每股收益的增長？簡單的答案是，利潤不能直接轉換成現金流，股價是未來每股現金流的折現，而不是每股盈利的折現。未來盈利是未來每股現金流的組成部分，但不是最重要的部分，運營資本、資本開支和未來股權的稀釋也非常重要。
Our ultimate financial measure， and the one we most want to drive over the long-term， is free cash flow per share.Why not focus first and foremost， as many do， on earnings， earnings per share or earnings growth？ The simple answer is that earnings dont directly translate into cash flows， and shares are worth only the present value of their future cash flows， not the present value of their future earnings。 Future earnings are a component—but not the only important component—of future cash flow per share。 Working capital and capital expenditures are also important， as is future share dilution。
儘管這聽起來是反直覺的，有些公司在某些情況下增加利潤的行為卻損害了股東價值。當為增長進行的資本投入大於這項投資未來所產生的現金流折現時，就會發生損害股東價值的情形。
Though some may find it counterintuitive， a company can actually impair shareholder value in certain circumstances by growing earnings。 This happens when the capital investments required for growth exceed the present value of the cash flow derived from those investments。
現金流量表沒有受到足夠的重視，有洞察力的投資者應該不滿足於僅僅分析損益表就去投資。
Cash flow statements often don‘t receive as much attention as they deserve。 Discerning investors don’t stop with the income statement。
我們最重要的財務指標是每股自由現金流。
Our Most Important Financial Measure: Free Cash Flow Per Share
亞馬遜的財務重點是增強每股現金流的長期增長。亞馬遜自由現金流的增長是通過增加運營利潤、有效管理運營資本和資本開支。我們通過提升客户方方面面的體驗來擴大銷售和極力壓低成本來增加運營利潤。
Amazon.com‘s financial focus is on long-term growth in free cash flow per share.Amazon.com’s free cash flow is driven primarily by increasing operating profit dollars and efficiently managing both working capital and capital expenditures。 We work to increase operating profit by focusing on improving all aspects of the customer experience to grow sales and by maintaining a lean cost structure。
對亞馬遜來説關注自由現金流並非新鮮事。我們在1997年致股東的信裏就説過如果在漂亮的會計報表和最大化每股現金流折現之間做出選擇的話，我們選擇自由現金流。我們一如既往地附上1997年致股東的信，希望當前和潛在的股東都能好好看看。
This focus on free cash flow isn‘t new for Amazon.com。 We made it clear in our 1997 letter to shareholders—our first as a public company—that when “forced to choose between optimizing GAAP accounting and maximizing the present value of future cash flows， we’ll take the cash flows。” Im attaching a copy of our complete 1997 letter and encourage current and prospective shareowners to take a look at it。
九、2005:不能用可見的短期利益來衡量長期利益
我們有些重要的決定可以通過數字分析來做出，哪一個是正確答案哪一個是錯誤答案，哪一個是更好的答案，哪一個是更糟的答案，這是我們喜歡的決策方式。
Many of the important decisions we make at Amazon.com can be made with data。 There is a right answer or a wrong answer， a better answer or a worse answer， and math tells us which is which。 These are our favorite kinds of decisions。
就像你可以預期的，不是所有的重要決定都通過數字分析的方式做出。有時我們需要在少許、甚至沒有數據的情況下做判斷。儘管數字、分析和數理起到重要作用，但這些決定更有賴於判斷力。
As you would expect， however， not all of our important decisions can be made in this enviable， math-based way。 Sometimes we have little or no historical data to guide us and proactive experimentation is impossible， impractical， or tantamount to a decision to proceed。 Though data， analysis， and math play a role， the prime ingredient in these decisions is judgment。
就像我們股東所知道的，我們在效率和規模允許的前提下年復一年將持續地為顧客降低價格，這就是一個不能用數學方式來分析的重要決定。實際上，數學分析上看並不支持降價策略，從算法上看，聰明的做法是提價，我們的收入與價格彈性直接相關。通過精確計算，我們可以預測某一百分比的降價會在一定程度上帶來銷量的增加。幾乎沒有例外，短期銷量的上升無法彌補價格下降帶來的損失。
As our shareholders know， we have made a decision to continuously and significantly lower prices for customers year after year as our efficiency and scale make it possible。 This is an example of a very important decision that cannot be made in a math-based way。 In fact， when we lower prices， we go against the math that we can do， which always says that the smart move is to raise prices。 We have significant data related to price elasticity。 With fair accuracy， we can predict that a price reduction of a certain percentage will result in anincrease in units sold of a certain percentage。 With rare exceptions， the volume increase in the short term is never enough to pay for the price decrease。
然而，數量上的彈性分析是短期的。我們可以用數字來估算出，降價在本週和本季度帶來的結果，但我們不能用數字估算出，持續降價對我們生意未來五年和十年的影響。我們的判斷是不斷把效率提升和規模上升的好處用低價的方式回饋給顧客就像一個正循環，它從長期大幅增加公司現金流，有助於形成一個更有價值的亞馬遜平台。我們對免費運和亞馬遜金牌有相似的判斷，它們短期是昂貴的，但長期是重要的和價值巨大的。
However， our quantitative understanding of elasticity is short-term。 We can estimate what a price reduction will do this week and this quarter。 But we cannot numerically estimate the effect that consistently lowering prices will have on our business over five years or ten years or more。 Our judgment is that relentlessly returning efficiency improvements and scale economies to customers in the form of lower prices creates a virtuous cycle that leads over the long term to a much larger dollar amount of free cash flow， and thereby to a much more valuable Amazon.com。 Weve made similar judgments around Free Super Saver Shipping and Amazon Prime， both of which are expensive in the short term and—we believe—important and valuable in the long term。
就像另外一個例子所展示的，我們在2000年邀請第三方賣家在我們的平台上與我們直銷產品展開直接競爭，這看起來很冒險，內部和外部的人們都善意提醒，這將蠶食亞馬遜的零售業務。這是一個以客户為中心的創新，但沒有辦法提前證明它是奏效的。有人指出邀請第三方到亞馬遜將使得預測庫存更困難了，而且如果第三方賣家的銷售網頁蓋過我們，我們會可能銷售停滯庫存增加。
As another example， in 2000 we invited third parties to compete directly against us on our “prime retail real estate”—our product detail pages。 Launching a single detail page for both Amazon retail and third-party items seemed risky。 Well-meaning people internally and externally worried it would can nibalize Amazons retail business， and—as is often the case with consumer-focused innovations—there was no way to prove in advance that it would work。 Our buyers pointed out that inviting third parties onto Amazon.com would make inventory forecasting more difficult and that we could get “stuck” with excess inventory if we “lost the detail page” to one of our third-party sellers。
然而，我們的判斷是簡單的，如果第三方能夠為某種商品提供更低的價格和更好的選擇，我們希望我們的客户能夠購買。隨着時間流逝，第三方銷售應變成我們生意中重要的和成功的一部分。2000年第三方銷售僅佔我們銷售的6%，2005年第三方銷售佔到了28%，而且這是在銷售收入增長了三倍的基礎上發生的。(注：2021年佔到了51.12%)
However， our judgment was simple。 If a third party could offer a better price or better availability on a particular item， then we wanted our customer to get easy access to that offer。 Over time， thirdparty sales have become a successful and significant part of our business。 Third-party units have grown from 6% of total units sold in 2000 to 28% in 2005， even as retail revenues have grown three-fold。
數字支持的決策經常能贏得更多的支持，然而以判斷力為基礎的決策卻總是陷入爭論，直到付諸實踐。任何不能包容爭論的機構只能把自己限制在第一種形式的決策裏。對我們來説，不能包容爭論不僅限制了爭議，而且極大限制了創新和長期價值創造。
Math-based decisions command wide agreement， whereas judgment-based decisions are rightly debated and often controversial， at least until put into practice and demonstrated。 Any institution u nwilling to endure controversy must limit itself to decisions of the first type。 In our view， doing so would not only limit controversy—it would also significantly limit innovation and long-term value creation。
十、2006:靜待一粒種子長成大樹
在亞馬遜現在的規模下，種一粒種子直到它成為具有影響力的新生意需要剋制、耐心和滋養的文化。
At Amazons current scale， planting seeds that will grow into meaningful new businesses takes some discipline， a bit of patience， and a nurturing culture。
亞馬遜物流是一套網絡服務應用編程，它使得我們1200萬平方英尺的物流中心網絡變身為巨大的和精密的計算機神經末梢，租用我們的物流中心一立方英尺需要45美分，你可以把你的產品存放在我們的物流中心。你可以用我們的網絡服務通知我們貨已經達到，通知我們分揀或者包裝，或者運到指定地點。
Fulfillment by Amazon is a set of web services APIs that turns our 12 million square foot fulfillment center network into a gigantic and sophisticated computer peripheral。 Pay us 45 cents per month per cubic foot of fulfillment center space， and you can stow your products in our network。 You make web services calls to alert us to expect inventory to arrive， to tell us to pick and pack one or more items， and to tell us where to ship those items。
亞馬遜雲是另外一個例子，我們正在開拓一種新的生意，關注的人羣是軟件開發者。我們現在提供10種不同的網絡服務，建立了有24000名軟件開發者註冊的社區，我們的目標是響應這些開發者廣泛的需求，比如存儲和計算機容量。軟件開發者經常需要這方面的幫助，而亞馬遜對此已經有12年的經驗。我們確信，這個生意是錯位競爭，它經濟上的回報隨着時間流逝也將會是巨大的。
Amazon Web Services is another example。 With AWS， we‘re building a new business focused on a newcustomer set … software developers。 We currently offer ten different web services and have built a community of over 240,000 registered developers。 We’re targeting broad needs universally faced by developers， such as storage and compute capacity—areas in which developers have asked for help， and in which we have deep expertise from scaling Amazon.com over the last twelve years。 We‘re well positioned to do it， it’s highly differentiated， and it can be a significant， financially attractive business over time。
在大公司，從小種子培養新生意是困難的，因為新生意需要耐心和培育。與眾不同的亞馬遜文化可以培育具有巨大潛力的新業務，我相信這也是我們競爭力的源泉。
In some large companies， it might be difficult to grow new businesses from tiny seeds because of the patience and nurturing required。 In my view， Amazon‘s culture is unusually supportive of small businesses with big potential， and I believe that’s a source of competitive advantage。
在我們的經驗裏，如果一個新的生意一開始很火爆，還需要3到7年才能在經濟上對公司產生有意義的影響。我們可以在我們的國際業務、早期的非媒體業務和我們的第三方銷售平台上看到這樣一個時間框架。今天國際業務佔到我們銷售的45%，第三方銷售平台收入佔到了銷售的28%。
In our experience， if a new business enjoys runaway success， it can only begin to be meaningful to the overall company economics in something like three to seven years。 Weve seen those time frames with our international businesses， our earlier non-media businesses， and our third party seller businesses。 Today， international is 45% of sales， non-media is 34% of sales， and our third party seller businesses account for 28% of our units sold。
十一、2007年：Kindle的誕生
我需要強調Kindle開發了實體書籍不可能有的實用功能，如果你遇到不認識的字，你可以輕鬆查找。你也可以搜尋你的書目。你的筆記和劃線都會被存儲到雲端，永不丟失。Kindle也可以自動翻到你上次閲讀的地方。如果你的眼睛累了，你可以調節字的打消。更重要的是，它可以無縫地，輕鬆地找到你要的書，並在60秒鐘下載下來。
I‘ll highlight a few of the useful features we built into Kindle that go beyond what you could ever do with aphysical book。 If you come across a word you don’t recognize， you can look it up easily。 You can search your books。 Your margin notes and underlinings are stored on the server-side in the “cloud，” where they can‘t be lost.Kindle keeps your place in each of the books you’re reading， automatically。 If your eyes are tired， you can change the font size。 Most important is the seamless， simple ability to find a book and have it in 60 seconds。
對於出版商來説，Kindle也有很多好處，書不被多印，也不會被少印，也不會進入倉庫，也不會被浪費。更重要的是，Kindle讓讀者買書更便利。任何時候，你讓事情更簡單和更沒有摩擦，你將收穫更多。
From apublishers point of view， there are a lot of advantages to Kindle。 Books never go out of print， and they never go ut of stock。 Nor is there ever waste from over-printing。 Most important， Kindle makes it more convenient for readers to buy more books。 Anytime you make something simpler and lower friction， you get more of it。
十二、2008:以客户體驗為戰略支柱
在劇烈波動的經濟環境下，我們的底層邏輯是一致的。努力工作，聚焦於長期和聚焦於客户需求。長線思考激活我們已有的能力，讓我們可以嘗試我們從來不曾思考過的新事物，長線思考為發明創造提供了必須的失敗容忍和迭代支持，它讓我們在未知空間探索。
In this turbulent global economy， our fundamental approach remains the same。 Stay heads down， focused on the long term and obsessed over customers。 Long-term thinking levers our existing abilities and lets us do new things we couldnt otherwise contemplate。 It supports the failure and iteration required for invention， and it frees us to pioneer in unexplored spaces。
尋求即時滿足或者縹緲承諾，你會發現在你所尋找的機會前面，已經一堆人等在你前面了。長期思考與滿足客户需求互相促進。如果你能識別客户的需求，並且能夠進一步確認客户的這一需求是長期和有意義的，我們的策略是讓我們耐心地用很多年去尋找一個解決方法。從客户的需求出發與從公司已有技能出發去尋找商業機遇是形成鮮明對比的。技術推進路徑認為，“我們已經擅長做X，我們可以用X來做點其他的？”技術推進路徑是有用的和可以帶來回報的方法。然而，如果技術路徑一直使用到盡頭時，公司沒有辦法驅動自己形成新的技術。最終，已有的技術會過時。回到客户需求的工作方法則需要我們經常形成新的能力和鍛鍊我們的新肌肉，無論最初的幾步是多麼不舒服和尷尬。
Seek instant gratification – or the elusive promise of it – and chances are you‘ll find a crowd there ahead of you。 Long-term orientation interacts well with customer obsession。 If we can identify a customer need and if we can further develop conviction that that need is meaningful and durable， our approach permits us to work patiently for multiple years to deliver a solution。 “Working backwards” from customer needs can be contrasted with a “skills-forward” approach where existing skills and competencies are used to drive business opportunities。 The skills-forward approach says， “We are really good at X。 What else can we do with X？” That’s a useful and rewarding business approach。 However， if used exclusively， the company employing it will never be driven to develop fresh skills。 Eventually the existing skills will become outmoded。 Working backwards from customer needs often demands that we acquire new competencies and exercise new muscles，never mind how uncomfortable and awkward-feeling those first steps might be。
在我們零售業務中，我們確信客户需要更低的價格、更多的選擇和更快捷的物流，這些需求長期存在着。很難想象十年之後，客户需要更高的價格、更少的選擇和更慢的物流。我們確信需要不斷投資來鞏固這些長期支柱性需求。我們知道我們的付出在將來會得到豐厚的回報。
In our retail business， we have strong conviction that customers value low prices， vast selection， and fast，convenient delivery and that these needs will remain stable over time。 It is difficult for us to imagine that ten years from now， customers will want higher prices， less selection， or slower delivery。 Our belief in the durability of these pillars is what gives us the confidence required to invest in strengthening them。 We know that the energy we put in now will continue to pay dividends well into the future。
我們的價格目標是贏得客户的信任，而不是最大化短期利潤。我們相信旨在贏得客户信任的定價策略長期會增加我們總利潤。我們每件商品會賺得少點，但是持續的信任會使我們售出更多的商品，因此我們對所有的品類實行低價策略。基於同樣的原因，我們繼續投資包含亞馬遜金牌在內的免費配送。客户是信息靈通和聰明的，他們在購物時會估算包括配送成本在內的總成本。在過去的12個月，全世界的客户使用我們的免費物流節省了8億美元。
Our pricing objective is to earn customer trust， not to optimize short-term profit dollars。 We take it as an article of faith that pricing in this manner is the best way to grow our aggregate profit dollars over the long term。 We may make less per item， but by consistently earning trust we will sell many more items。 Therefore， we offer low prices across our entire product range。 For the same reason， we continue to invest in our free shipping programs，including Amazon Prime。 Customers are well-informed and smart， and they evaluate the total cost， including delivery charges， when making their purchasing decisions。 In the last 12 months， customers worldwide have saved more than $800 million by taking advantage of our free shipping offers。
十三、2009:更快、更多、更省
2009年的財務結果是過去15年不斷提升客户體驗的結果：更多的選擇，更快的配送，不斷降低的成本結構使我們可以用低價的方式返還給客户，外加其他方面的努力。我們公司大量聰明的、全力以赴的，以客户為中心的員工達成了這一結果。我們為我們的低價策略、可靠的配送，我們有大量其他地方難以找到商品的庫存而感到驕傲。我們知道我們還可以通過持續努力變得更好。
The financial results for 2009 reflect the cumulative effect of 15 years of customer experience improvements: increasing selection， speeding delivery， reducing cost structure so we can afford to offer customers ever-lower prices， and many others。 This work has been done by a large number of smart， relentless， customer-devoted people across all areas of the company。 We are proud of our low prices， our reliable delivery， and our in-stock position on even obscure and hard-to-find items。 We also know that we can still be much better， and were dedicated to improving further。
(注：借用柯林斯對飛輪效應和自我強化所做的定義，貝佐斯描繪過公司步入良性循環的前景：以更低的價格來吸引更多的顧客，更多的顧客意味着更高的銷量，也會把第三方銷售商更多吸引到亞馬遜平台，這會使得亞馬遜的固定設施更有效率，更加的效率會進一步降低價格。)
十四、2010:我們是一家科技公司
隨即預測、單純貝葉斯估計、RESTful服務、Gossip協議、事件一致性、反熵、拜占庭法定人數、糾刪碼、向量時鐘算法……如果你走進亞馬遜的某個會議室，你會誤以為自己闖進了某個科技論壇。
Random forests， nave Bayesian estimators， RESTful services， gossip protocols， eventual consistency， datasharding， anti-entropy， Byzantine quorum， erasure coding， vector clocks … walk into certain Amazon meetings，and you may momentarily think youve stumbled into a computer science lecture。
如果僅僅認為科技是研發部門的事，那麼科技的努力將發揮不了作用，事實上，我們整個團隊、所有的決策均全程擁抱科技，科技與我們的決策、我們生意的每個方面、我們做的每件事情緊密結合。
All the effort we put into technology might not matter that much if we kept technology off to the side in some sort of R&D; department， but we dont take that approach。 Technology infuses all of our teams， all of our processes， our decision-making， and our approach to innovation in each of our businesses。 It is deeply integrated into everything we do。
到此為止，如果忠實閲讀這封信的股東仍然沒有感覺，我將提醒你，這些技術不是閒着無聊開發出來的，他們直接帶來自由現金流。
Now， if the eyes of some shareowners dutifully reading this letter are by this point glazing over， I will awaken you by pointing out that， in my opinion， these techniques are not idly pursued – they lead directly to free cash flow。
十五、2011:創新的力量
創新可以用很多形式在很多維度上展開，但最激烈最具有變革意義的創新是為他人賦能，助力他人有追逐夢想。這正是亞馬遜在做的，亞馬遜物流(FBA)、亞馬遜雲(AWS)和亞馬遜直接出版平台(KDP)就是這樣的賦能平台。由於AWS、FBA和 KDP的支持，成千上萬的人在這些強大的自助平台上大膽試驗，去完成原本可能會覺得無法想象或不切實際的事情。這些大規模的創新平台不是零和遊戲，他們是雙贏，為軟件開發者、企業家、顧客、作者和讀者創造了巨大的價值。
Invention comes in many forms and at many scales。 The most radical and transformative of inventions areoften those that empower others to unleash their creativity – to pursue their dreams。 That‘s a big part of what’s going on with Amazon Web Services， Fulfillment by Amazon， and Kindle Direct Publishing。 With AWS， FBA，and KDP， we are creating powerful self-service platforms that allow thousands of people to boldly experiment and accomplish things that would otherwise be impossible or impractical。 These innovative， large-scale platforms are not zero-sum – they create win-win situations and create significant value for developers， entrepreneurs， customers， authors， and readers。
在2011年最後一個季度，亞馬遜物流(FBA)為第三方賣家配送了上千萬的商品。當第三方賣家用FBA，他們的商品可以享用亞馬遜金牌會員，超級省配送、亞馬遜退貨和客服。FBA是一個自助平台，並且有簡單易用的庫存管理系統，這是亞馬遜賣家看重的核心部分。用科技術語來説，FBA附帶一系列API，你可以使用我們的全球物流中心，它們就像巨大的計算機神經末梢。
In just the last quarter of 2011， Fulfillment by Amazon shipped tens of millions of items on behalf of sellers.When sellers use FBA， their items become eligible for Amazon Prime， for Super Saver Shipping， and forAmazon returns processing and customer service。 FBA is self-service and comes with an easy-to-use inventory management console as part of Amazon Seller Central。 For the more technically inclined， it also comes with a set of APIs so that you can use our global fulfillment center network like a giant computer peripheral。
Kindle直接出版正以驚人的速度成長，有一千多名KDP的作者現在每個月都可以出售1000冊書，甚至有人可以售出上萬冊，有兩個已經加入Kindle百萬俱樂部，KDP對於作者來説是個大贏家。使用KDP的作者仍然保留著作權和著作的衍生權。KDP作者可以按照自己的時間表來發布作品，而在傳統的出版業，他們需要在寫完著作一年後甚至更遲才能出版。更重要的是，KDP作者可以得到70%的版税，傳統的大出版商僅僅對每本書支付17.5%的版税(它們支付書售價70%的25%)，一本KDP書非常便宜，往往僅定價2.99美元，作者可以拿到2美元，而在傳統的17.5%的版税下，一本書要賣到11.43美元才能拿到2美元的版税，我保證2。。99美元定價下會比11.43美元定價下售出更多的書。
Kindle Direct Publishing has quickly taken on astonishing scale – more than a thousand KDP authors now each sell more than a thousand copies a month， some have already reached hundreds of thousands of sales， andtwo have already joined the Kindle Million Club。 KDP is a big win for authors。 Authors who use KDP get to keep their copyrights， keep their derivative rights， get to publish on their schedule – a typical delay in traditional publishing can be a year or more from the time the book is finished – and … saving the best for last … KDP authors can get paid royalties of 70%。 The largest traditional publishers pay royalties of only 17.5% on ebooks(they pay 25% of 70% of the selling price which works out to be 17.5% of the selling price)。 The KDP royalty structure is completely transformative for authors。 A typical selling price for a KDP book is a reader-friendly $2.99 – authors get approximately $2 of that！ With the legacy royalty of 17.5%， the selling price would have tobe $11.43 to yield the same $2 per unit royalty。 I assure you that authors sell many， many more copies at $2.99 than they would at $11.43。
十六、2012:來自內部驅動的力量
經常閲讀貝佐斯致股東信的讀者都知道，亞馬遜前進的驅動力來自我們打動客户的渴望，而不是來自打敗競爭對手的熱忱。我們對最大化亞馬遜商業成功的路徑並不熱衷。也有許多緊盯競爭對手取得成功的公司，兩種策略各有利弊。而我們確實會關注我們的競爭對手，並被他們所激勵，但以客户為中心才真正定義了我們的文化。
As regular readers of this letter will know， our energy at Amazon comes from the desire to impress customers rather than the zeal to best competitors。 We dont take a view on which of these approaches is more likely to maximize business success。 There are pros and cons to both and many examples of highly successful competitor-focused companies。 We do work to pay attention to competitors and be inspired by them， but it is a fact that the customer-centric way is at this point a defining element of our culture。
以客户為中心的好處在於，或許很微妙，能夠驅動積極能動性。當我們盡最大努力時，我們不需要外在的壓力。我們是用內部驅動來為客户提升服務，主動添加各種好處和性能，而不是迫不得已做出改進。我們創造並非迫不得已，以客户為中心驅動的所做投資勝過迫於外部壓力做出的投資。
One advantage – perhaps a somewhat One advantage – perhaps a somewhat subtle one – of a customer-driven focus is that it aids a certain type of proactivity。 When we‘re at our best， we don’t wait for external pressures。 We are internally driven to improve our services， adding benefits and features， before we have to。 We lower prices and increase value for customers before we have to。 We invent before we have to。 These investments are motivated by customer focus rather than by reaction to competition。
我們的金牌會員現在可以享有1500萬商品，15倍於2005年啓動之時。金牌會員流媒體視頻同比增加3倍，有38000部影視作品。Kindle借閲圖書館裏的書也三倍於去年同期，達到30萬冊，包括我們花了數百萬美元讓哈利波特全集成為館藏之書。我們不是迫不得已而是積極主動擴大了金牌會員享有的服務。亞馬遜物流是一個歷時數年的相關投資，亞馬遜物流給了第三方賣家可以把貨物存放在我們物流中心的選擇，讓第三方賣家的商品成為金牌會員可選擇的商品，是一個重大的改變性措施，提升了第三方賣家銷量的同時，增加了顧客和金牌會員的選擇。
We now have more than 15 million items in Prime， up 15x since we launched in 2005。 Prime Instant Video selection tripled in justover a year to more than 38,000 movies and TV episodes。 The Kindle Owners‘ Lending Library has also morethan tripled to over 300,000 books， including an investment of millions of dollars to make the entire Harry Potterseries available as part of that selection。 We didn’t “have to” make these improvements in Prime。 We did so proactively。 A related investment – a major， multi-year one – is Fulfillment by Amazon。 FBA gives third-party sellers the option of warehousing their inventory alongside ours in our fulfillment center network。 It has been a game changer for our seller customers because their items become eligible for Prime benefits， which drives their sales， while at the same time benefitting consumers with additional Prime selection。
我們在金牌會員、亞馬遜雲、Kindle、數字媒體和客户體驗上的重磅投資也招來一些過於慷慨的非議，不像一個追求盈利的公司，不為股東利於着想。正如一個外部觀察者所説：“在我看來，亞馬遜就像由投資機構管理的、為客户利益運營的慈善機構。”對此，我並不認同。我認為，一個公司踩着“時間剛剛好”而被迫擠牙膏式的改進是小聰明，這種小聰明在一個快速運轉的世界中是非常危險的。更根本的是，用長線思維來推動飛輪，積極主動地取悦客户，贏得他們的信任，將帶來更多的生意，甚至開闢新的商業領域。從長遠來看，客户的利益與股東的利益是一致的。
Our heavy investments in Prime， AWS， Kindle， digital media， and customer experience in general strike some as too generous， shareholder indifferent， or even at odds with being a for-profit company。 “Amazon， as far as I can tell， is a charitable organization being run by elements of the investment community for the benefit of consumers，” writes one outside observer。 But I dont think so。 To me， trying to dole out improvements in a just in-time fashion would be too clever by half。 It would be risky in a world as fast-moving as the one we all live in.More fundamentally， I think long-term thinking squares the circle。 Proactively delighting customers earns trust，which earns more business from those customers， even in new business arenas。 Take a long-term view， and the interests of customers and shareholders alig。
十七、2013年：亞馬遜已啓用和正在培育的產品
我為我們的團隊感到驕傲，他們過去數年間代表客户利益進行創新，全世界的亞馬遜人從長計議不斷打造超出客户期望、能讓顧客為之驚呼的好產品。
I‘m so proud of what all the teams here at Amazon have accomplished on behalf of customers this past year.Amazonians around the world are polishing products and services to a degree that is beyond what’s expected orrequired， taking the long view， reinventing normal， and getting customers to say Wow。
我們使用非同尋常的工具：顧客至上，而不是盯住競爭對手，對創新發自內心的激情，渴望做得更好和願意長線思維。良好的執行加上一點點運氣，第三方銷售平台(Marketplace)、金牌會員(Prime)和亞馬遜雲(AWS)在為客户提供服務的同時，並在很多年都有良好的經濟回報。
Well approach the job with our usual tools: customer obsession rather than competitor focus， heartfelt passion for invention， commitment to operational excellence， and a willingness to think long-term。 With good execution and a bit of continuing good luck， Marketplace， Prime， and AWS can be serving customers and earning financial returns for many years to come。
亞馬遜雲推出已有8年了，我們團隊創新的步伐一直在加速，在2010年，我們推出了61中不同的服務。我們經常迭代，當一個新的功能或者增強版本出來時，我們馬上把它推向市場，這個方法是快速的、以顧客為中心的，和富有效率的。它使得我們在過去8年時間中降價了40次，我們的團隊仍然沒有慢下來的打算。
AWS is eight years old， and the team‘s pace of innovation is actually accelerating。 In 2010， we launched 61 significant services and features。 We iterate continuously， and when a feature or enhancement is ready， we push it out and make it instantly available to all。 This approach is fast， customer-centric， and efficient – it’s allowed us to reduce prices more than 40 times in the past 8 years – and the teams have no plans to slow down。
失敗總是與創新相伴隨，失敗不是可選項。我們理解和相信越早失敗，我們就越能早點找到對的路。當這一過程生效時，它意味着失敗是小規模的可控的(一些試驗開始時很小)，當我們發現那些對顧客真正有用的好項目時，我們下雙倍的賭注希望獲得較大的成功。然而，創新總是混亂的，隨着時間推移，我們也總會有失敗的項目。
Failure comes part and parcel with invention。 It‘s not optional。 We understand that and believe in failing early and iterating until we get it right。 When this process works， it means our failures are relatively small in size(most experiments can start small)， and when we hit on something that is really working for customers， we double-down on it with hopes to turn it into an even bigger success。 However， it’s not always as clean as that.Inventing is messy， and over time， it‘s certain that we’ll fail at some big bets too。
十八、2014年：一個好產品的特徵
一個好產品總是有四大特徵：客户喜歡、擁有巨大的體量、有很高的回報，能長時間流行，生命週期有潛力達到幾十年以上。當你發現了這些好的產品，不要淺嘗輒止，要與它結婚。
A dreamy business offering has at least four characteristics。 Customers love it， it can grow to very large size， it has strong returns on capital， and it‘s durable in time – with the potential to endure for decades。 When you find one of these， don’t just swipe right， get married。
我非常高興地向您報告，亞馬遜在這方面可不是一夫一妻制，經過20年的冒險和團隊工作，外加好運一路陪伴，我們高興地將三個產品視為生命伴侶：Marketplace， Prime， 和 AWS。每一個產品初始時都看起來如此大膽，敏感的人們擔憂它們行不通。但是在這點上，後來證明它們是多麼獨特，我們是多麼幸運能夠擁有它們。在商業中沒有清閒的差事，我們需要滋養和鞏固它們。
Well， I‘m pleased to report that Amazon hasn’t been monogamous in this regard。 After two decades of risk taking and teamwork， and with generous helpings of good fortune all along the way， we are now happily wed to what I believe are three such life partners: Marketplace， Prime， and AWS。 Each of these offerings was a bold bet at first， and sensible people worried (often！) that they could not work。 But at this point， it‘s become pretty clear how special they are and how lucky we are to have them。 It’s also clear that there are no sinecures in business。 We know its our job to always nourish and fortify them。
十九、2015年：勇於試錯
關於公司文化：無論好與壞，公司文化是持久的、穩定和難以改變的。公司文化是公司優勢或者劣勢的源泉。你可以把公司文化寫下來，但是當你這麼做的時候，你是在發現公司文化，而不是創造公司文化。公司文化是由人和事件在漫長時間裏沉澱下來的，由那些已經成為傳説的成功和失敗的故事構成。如果公司文化鮮明，它就像定製手套一樣適合某類人。喜歡競爭的人和喜歡創新的人會開心地呆在不同文化的企業中。
A word about corporate cultures: for better or for worse， they are enduring， stable， hard to change。 They can be a source of advantage or disadvantage。 You can write down your corporate culture， but when you do so，you‘re discovering it， uncovering it – not creating it。 It is created slowly over time by the people and by events –by the stories of past success and failure that become a deep part of the company lore。 If it’s a distinctive culture，it will fit certain people like a custom-made glove。 The reason cultures are so stable in time is because people self-select。 Someone energized by competitive zeal may select and be happy in one culture， while someone who loves to pioneer and invent may choose another。 The world， thankfully， is full of many high-performing， highly distinctive corporate cultures。 We never claim that our approach is the right one – just that it‘s ours – and over the last two decades， we’ve collected a large group of like-minded people。 Folks who find our approach energizing and meaningful。
二十、2016:永遠做Day 1的公司
“Day 2是停滯不前，變得無關緊要，承受痛苦的衰退，直到死亡。這就是我們為什麼要一直成為Day 1的公司。”卓越的公司一旦淪為Day 2公司可能需要數十年，儘管衰退是極其緩慢的，但最終在劫難逃。
“Day 2 is stasis。 Followed by irrelevance。 Followed by excruciating， painful decline。 Followed by death。 And that is why it is always Day 1。”To be sure， this kind of decline would happen in extreme slow motion。 An established company might harvest Day 2 for decades， but the final result would still come。
我感興趣的問題是，我們如何避免成為Day 2？技巧是什麼？即使成為一個很大的公司後，我們如何保持Day 1的活力？
Im interested in the question， how do you fend off Day 2？ What are the techniques and tactics？ How do youkeep the vitality of Day 1， even inside a large organization？
這類問題沒有簡單的答案。可能有很要素、各種路徑和各種策略。我不知道所有的答案。但是我知道部分答案。這就是保持Day 1要素羣：顧客至上、小心使用替代指標、擁抱外部世界的熱忱和高效決策力。
Such a question can‘t have a simple answer。 There will be many elements， multiple paths， and many traps。 I don’t know the whole answer， but I may know bits of it。 Heres a starter pack of essentials for Day 1 defense: customer obsession， a skeptical view of proxies， the eager adoption of external trends， and high-velocity decision making。
為什麼要以客户為中心？因為有以客户為中心有很多好處，最大的好處是，客户經常有各種不滿，他們想要更好的產品，即使他們不知道想要的產品是什麼。你取悦客户的願望驅動你代表客户利益去創新。沒有客户請求亞馬遜創立金牌會員，但是最後證明客户是需要金牌會員的。諸如此類，我可以舉出很多例子。
True Customer Obsession。 Why？ There are many advantages to a customer-centric approach， but here‘s the big one: customers are always beautifully， wonderfully dissatisfied， even when they report being happy and business is great。 Even when they don’t yet know it， customers want something better， and your desire to delight customers will drive you to inventon their behalf。 No customer ever asked Amazon to create the Prime membership program， but it sure turns out they wanted it， and I could give you many such examples。
要小心使用替代指標。一個經常的案例就是將流程作為替代指標。好的流程服務你，讓你可以更好服務客户。但是如果不小心，流程就成為了主體，這在大公司會輕易發生。結果是，你停止了以客户為中心，而是追求正確的流程。當不理想的事情發生時，“我遵守了流程”的辯護並非不常見。更有人投機取巧研究和利用流程。流程不是主體。這是值得問問自己的，我們擁有流程還是流程擁有我們。在Day 2公司，你會一眼看出這個問題。
Resist Proxies。 A common example is process as proxy。 Good process serves you so you can serve customers。 But if you‘re not watchful， the process can become the thing。 This can happen very easily in large organizations。 The process becomes the proxy for the result you want。 You stop looking at outcomes and just make sure you’re doing the process right。 Gulp。 It‘s not that rare to hear a junior leader defend a bad outcome with something like， “Well， we followed the process。” A more experienced leader will use it as an opportunity to investigate and improve the process。 The process is not the thing。 It’s always worth asking， do we own the process or does the process own us？ In a Day 2 company， you might find its the second。
擁抱外部趨勢。這個世界的外部趨勢會推着我們進入Day 2，如果你不能快速擁抱強力的外部趨勢。如果你抗拒外部趨勢，你就與未來作對。擁抱它們，你將搭上順風車。
Embrace External Trends.The outside world can push you into Day 2 if you won‘t or can’t embrace powerful trends quickly。 If you fight them， youre probably fighting the future。 Embrace them and you have a tailwind。
快速決策。Day 2公司經常會做高質量的決策，但是決策很慢。為了保持Day 1公司的活力，你不得不快速做出高質量的決策。快速決策對剛起步的公司容易，但是對大型公司來説卻很難。亞馬遜的高管團隊下決心保持快速決策能力。快速決策也非常有樂趣。我們不知道全部答案，但是我們有一些思路。
High-Velocity Decision Making Day 2 companies make high-quality decisions， but they make high-quality decisions slowly。 To keep the energy and dynamism of Day 1， you have to somehow make high-quality， high-velocity decisions。 Easy for start-ups and very challenging for large organizations。 The senior team at Amazon is determined to keep our decision-making velocity high。 Speed matters in business – plus a high-velocity decision making environment is more fun too。 We dont know all the answers， but here are some thoughts。
二十一、2017年：設立高標準的內部組織
你如何不斷超越客户的期望？沒有單一的路徑，它取決於很多因素。但是高標準肯定是我們不斷超越客户期望的重要因素。我們在此方面有着價值數十億美元的教訓。從經驗出發，我們願意和你分享我們從高標準內部組織中學到的精華。
How do you stay ahead of ever-rising customer expectations？ There‘s no single way to do it – it’s a combinationof many things。 But high standards (widely deployed and at all levels of detail) are certainly a big part of it.We‘ve had some successes over the years in our quest to meet the high expectations of customers。 We’ve also ad billions of dollars‘ worth of failures along the way。 With those experiences as backdrop， I’d like to share ith you the essentials of what weve learned (so far) about high standards inside an organization。
努力建立高標準的文化有諸多好處，是值得的。最顯而易見的好處，你可以開發更好的產品和為客户提供更好的服務，這點就足夠了。但還有隱藏的其他好處，人們一旦建立高標準，它有助於招募和留住人才，更微妙的是，高標準文化不僅有利於做好可見的重要工作，而且會影響到公司方方面面，包括沒有人看見的工作。用高標準做好細微處的工作時非常重要的，這是專業度的表現。
Building a culture of high standards is well worth the effort， and there are many benefits。 Naturally and most obviously， you‘re going to build better products and services for customers – this would be reason enough！ Perhaps a little less obvious: people are drawn to high standards – they help with recruiting and retention。 More subtle: a culture of high standards is protective of all the “invisible” but crucial work that goes on in every company。 I’m talking about the work that no one sees。 The work that gets done when no one is watching。 In a high standards culture， doing that work well is its own reward – its part of what it means to be a professional。
二十二、2018年：直覺、好奇心和漫遊的力量
亞馬遜雲就是個例子，沒有人提出需要亞馬遜雲，這個世界是非常渴望一款這樣的產品但是大家在產品誕生之前並不知道。我們有預感，跟隨我們的好奇心，並且敢於冒一定的必須財務風險，開始建設、重建、試驗、迭代，無數次反覆重來。
AWS itself – as a whole – is an example。 No one asked for AWS。 No one。 Turns out the world was in fact ready and hungry for an offering like AWS but didnt know it。 We had a hunch， followed our curiosity， took the necessary financial risks， and began building – reworking， experimenting， and iterating countless times as we proceeded。
一個公司要成長，需要每一樣東西都上規模，包括失敗也要達到一定的數量。如果你失敗的數量停止增長，你將不能找到足夠多發明的方向。亞馬遜願意在一定的範圍內試驗，有時我們會損失幾十億美元。當然我們不是騎士。我們這樣體量公司願意為顧客和社會承擔較大的風險。對我們股東來説，好消息是，一次大的成功不僅可以覆蓋多次失敗的成本，而且還能賺很多。
As a company grows， everything needs to scale， including the size of your failed experiments。 If the size of your failures isn‘t growing， you’re not going to be inventing at a size that can actually move the needle。 Amazon will be experimenting at the right scale for a company of our size if we occasionally have multibillion-dollar failures.Of course， we wont undertake such experiments cavalierly。 We will work hard to make them good bets， but not all good bets will ultimately pay out。 This kind of large-scale risk taking is part of the service we as a large company can provide to our customers and to society。 The good news for shareowners is that a single big winning bet can more than cover the cost of many losers。
二十三、2019年：抗擊新冠
亞馬遜人不分晝夜地將生活必需品放在顧客門前。我們看到對必需品的需求依然很高。這可不是週末峯值的預測，激增的需求沒有任何提前預警，這給物流和供應都帶來了挑戰。我們迅速決定將配送必需日用品、醫藥和其他重要產品放在第一位。
Amazonians are working around the clock to get necessary supplies delivered directly to the doorsteps of people who need them。 The demand we are seeing for essential products has been and remains high。 But unlike a predictable holiday surge， this spike occurred with little warning， creating major challenges for our suppliers and delivery network。 We quickly prioritized the stocking and delivery of essential household staples， medical supplies， and other critical products。
二十四、2020年：拒絕被環境同化
我們去年繼續努力服務和取悦顧客。我們僱傭了50萬員工，在世界範圍內直接聘用了130萬人，我們有2億的金牌客户，190萬大大小小的企業在我們平台上銷售，他們的銷售額佔到我們整體銷售的60%。客户通過Alexa連接了1億的家庭智能設備。亞馬遜云為成百上千萬的客户服務，2020年有500億美元的滾動銷售收入。
Weve come a long way since then， and we are working harder than ever to serve and delight customers.Last year， we hired 500,000 employees and now directly employ 1.3 million people around the world。 We have more than 200 million Prime members worldwide。 More than 1.9 million small and medium-sized businesses sell in our store， and they make up close to 60% of our retail sales。 Customers have connected more than 100 million smart home devices to Alexa。 Amazon Web Services serves millions of customers and ended 2020 with a $50 billion annualized run rate。
在1997年，我們沒有發明金牌客户、第三方市場、Alexa或亞馬遜雲，甚至連念想也沒有過，沒有什麼是命中註定的，我們用冒險謹慎和聰明才智發明了它們。
In 1997， we hadn‘t invented Prime， Marketplace， Alexa， or AWS.They weren’t even ideas then， and none was preordained。 We took great risk with each one and put sweat and ingenuity into each one。
如果你想在生意上或者生命中成功，你不得不創造大於你消耗的價值。你的目標是為與你有聯繫的每個人創造價值，如果任何一種生意不能創造價值，即使表面成功，也將在不久的將來會退出歷史舞台。
If you want to be successful in business (in life， actually)， you have to create more than you consume。 Your goal should be to create value for everyone you interact with。 Any business that doesn‘t create value for those it touches， even if it appears successful on the surface， isn’t long for this world。 Its on the way out。
記住股價不關乎過去，它是對未來現金流折現的預測，股市總在預測。
Remember that stock prices are not about the past。 They are a prediction of future cash flows discounted back to the present。 The stock market anticipates。
這是我作為亞馬遜CEO的最後一封致股東的信，我有一件非常重要的事情要説出來，我希望全體亞馬遜人記在心裏，這個世界總想同化你，讓我們與環境歸為一體。我們需要持續努力不被同化。
This is my last annual shareholder letter as the CEO of Amazon， and I have one last thing of utmost importance I feel compelled to teach。 I hope all Amazonians take it to heart。 The world will always try to make Amazon more typical – to bring us into equilibrium with our environment。 It will take continuous effort， but we can and must be better than that。
（文章來源：券商中國）